iPhones + iChat
"The iPhone will soon have iChat integration which will link all iPhone users to each other as well as to Mac desktop users, to create a first of a kind, mobile global linked community". Well, that's my guess anyway. It's not rocket science. Here is the evidence I'm looking at:
Adobe is said to be adding VoIP capabilities to the next version of Flash, as had been reported by Om , as well as Tom Keating It's also generally believed that Apple will announce support of Flash on the iPhone, as suggested by Walt Mossberg and widely reported by everyone else. This would be a nice little relationship between the companies. Apple brings added differentiation to the iPhone (as if it needs it), while reinforcing the advantages of being a computer company first and a phone provider second. Adobe extends the usefulness of Flash while reinforcing it's platform characteristics.
So who cares?
End Users - End users are going to be able to carry on conversations over wi-fi networks to any other iPhone user and probably any other Mac user seamlessly and hopefully for free. (Apple could charge for the connection, but hopefully will instead see the benefit of increasing the size of their user base). The solution will have built in presence across all Mac OS devices, (and conceivably all "opted in" flash players?). If you're on Mac or iPhone and you are on the network, the system will indicate your availability. I would watch for a video camera and video iChat to be built in before Christmas,
Telcos / Carriers - Telcos will certainly be taking notice because this play hits right at a ridiculously profitable category for them and could signal the end of their walled gardened "playground". Long distance charges and roaming revenue will rapidly decay as users simply make sure they are in a wi-fi before they make international calls. When this happens, by the way, watch for Apple to start using telco terms like "network size" and social media terms like "community members". Apple will be disrupting an estimated 250 billion dollar slice of the 2.5 trillion annual communication pie. The telcos will need to be very concerned that they don't find themselves in the position of the music industry, trying to negotiate with Steve Jobs on how much they can charge their customers.
Skype - Skype, and all the current VoIP players will care. Skype, being a 1.0 downloaded client, will be made technically obsolete as soon as the Flash voice component hits the streets. The Apple integration of Flash VoIP will certainly run right through the iPhone microphone and speaker so there won't be any special equipment and there won't be a download, in the traditional sense - it will simply be supplied in an iPhone software upgrade.
Apple - Apple cares because for the last 10 years they've been trying to position themselves at the confluence of computers, entertainment and communication and this is the last leg of this three legged stool. Demonstrating massive innovation in the communication sector is positioning them for ten years of industry leadership. What comes out of the merger of the Internet and telephony is yet to be defined but it will be significant and landscape changing.
The Catch - There are two catches actually. The first issue will be VoIP call quality. The quality of a VoIP call is usually defined by a combination of the speed of the connection (size of the pipe) and the power of the processor translating the analog voice signal to digital. If the wi-fi connection is weak, the call quality will be unacceptable, leaving room for non-bandwidth dependent solutions like Jajah. The other catch is, it might not be free. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple require a .mac like account to use this service, possibly adding Voice 2.o features on the back-end to justify the cost.
PSTN Gateway - I
doubt we'll see this in an early rev. but you can be sure they are also
working on a wi-fi to PSTN bridge of some kind, possibly not unlike
T-Mobiles recently announced Hotspot at Home service
that reportedly lets you walk out of the wi-fi coverage area and get
picked up by the T-Mobile cell service without dropping the call.
Any way you look at it, the telephony industry as we know it, is in for a roller-coaster of change. The good news is, the end user is about to win as a result.




